EM Macro and Politics - Sep 28

EM Macro and Politics - Sep 28

Romania - CCR reportedly says no-confidence motion against govt must proceed
• Parliament should decide today on motion's debate and vote date
• Opposition PSD submits own motion today, probably to have new excuse not to back USR-Plus motion
• PSD's motion to be presented next week and voted 3 days after presentation
• PSD and USR-Plus likely to leave disagreements behind and back each other, otherwise motion won't pass
• Early election is less likely, we see minority ruling of new Citu cabinet as more probable scenario

Ghana - Fiscal deficit widens to above-target 6.1% of GDP in Jan-Jul
• Deficit exceeds 5.7% target as result of revenue underperformance
• Expenditures are under-executed but not enough to revenue impact
• Primary deficit reaches1.9% of GDP, exceeding target too

Nigeria - NNPC pays NGN 906bn fuel subsidy during Jan-Aug – The Punch
• NNPC stopped publishing under-recovery costs in its monthly reports
• As crude oil prices rose in 2021, petrol landing costs surged to NGN 250/litre in July
• However, Nigeria kept pump prices steady at NGN 162/litre, meaning NNPC is subsidizing petrol

South Africa - Net capital transactions record outflow of ZAR 109.6bn in Q2
• Only foreign investments recorded net inflows in Q2
• FDI inflows reflect foreign companies investing in subsidiaries as well as a large transaction in petrochemical sector
• Portfolio investment outflow is driven by residents' acquisition of foreign assets

Peru - Government to renegotiate Camisea gas contract starting October 6
• Nationalization is an option if negotiations are not fruitful, PM Bellido said
• President Castillo and minister Merino say good faith leads negotiations
• Renegotiating profits is puzzling while expropriation would cost USD 30bn, local experts say

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