По данным Росстатас 16 по 22 апреля ИПЦ вырос на 0.08% (0.10% за аналогичную неделю 2023г) vs 0.12% (0.04%) и 0.16% (0.11%) в предыдущие 2 недели; с начала апреля – 0.37%, с начала года – 2.33%.
Рост цен без огурца, томата и самолёта составил 0.12% vs 0.12% и 0.17%.
Главным дезинфляционным фактором вновь, как и в марте, остаются огурцы, в то время, как индикатор высокого спроса –услуги – дорожают быстрее10% saar. Это значит, что в устойчивой части замедления инфляции не происходит. Наш прогноз инфляции на апрель: 0.5-0.6% (около 6% mm saar); в устойчивой части может быть и выше 6% saar.
Это не очень хорошая картина, означающая, что с декабря, темпы роста цен принципиального не меняются. Если и в мае мы не увидим замедления, то впору задуматься – достаточно ли текущей жесткости для возвращения инфляции к цели.
Вероятность, что следующим шагом будет не снижение, а рост ставки – значима. Интрига - будет ли в прогнозе от ЦБ завтра такой сигнал?
EMCR NEWS: INSTRUCTIONS
How to Join EMCR News Discussions
The
EMCR News - feed is akin to the Bloomberg news line. In it, you will find the latest financial news, along with associated comments and discussions from professional analysts.
To not miss anything - read the full EMCR News feed on the EMCR website through a desktop or a pinned browser window on the "home" screen of your phone.
Step 2: Get verification of your expertise from someone who already has a verified personal profile on EMCR.
Step 3: in the settings of your personal or corporate profile, connect the broadcast of your Telegram channel to the profile.
After this, the content of your channel will be displayed in your EMCR profile.
We can include the most interesting of your posts or all of your content in the EMCR News feed depending on its quality and topic. You will also be able to participate in news discussions and link your posts in long thematic threads.
Participating in EMCR News discussions and linking your posts to threads.
To comment on some news, copy the link to it
from the source Telegram channel and paste it in your comment or
make a repost of the news from the source channel in your own channel and give your comment as a reply to this repost
If your comment enters the news discussion on EMCR News, it will look like this:
EXAMPLE
You can also comment on other participants comments (also through a link or repost) and they will also be added to the general chain of comments.
ATTENTION: only professional comments get into the news discussion.
A thematic thread is a series of comments about one topic, connected to each other. EXAMPLE
Linking your posts to thematic threads is also done through a reply to your previous post or by inserting the link to it as the first link in your new post.
We share the best threads and discussions in our "Thread of the Day" section, and also share them in our
@EMCR_jobs channel.
We wish you interesting posts and great discussions!