С пятницы в США начался налоговый период, что изымает ликвидность из системы, за 2 рабочих дня счет Минфина в ФРС пополнился на $229 млрд, из которых $172 млрд в понедельник ($22 млрд - займы, $150 млрд за счет налогов).
В значимой мере налоги были профинансированы за счет фондов денежного рынка, что видно по резкому сокращению обратного РЕПО с ФРС (ON RRP) на $128 млрд за те же пару дней до $327 млрд. Правда уже во вторник ON RRP выросло до $371.6 млрд, что отчасти обусловлено погашением векселей во вторник. С начала месяца бюджет усиленно тратил, так что относительно начала месяца все не так плохо, хотя в моменте изъятие ликвидности прилично – это может быть одним из факторов давления на рынки.
Обычно основные налоги собирают за 3-4 рабочих дня, потом процесс резко замедляется, сейчас Йеллен часть денег возвращает через погашение векселей (~$40 млрд на этой неделе), что сгладит ситуацию, но миллиардов $50-100 из системы еще может уйти.
@truecon
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