🧮 Pro Markets - ACI Russia Краткие итоги эфира 03.05.2024 👉🏻 «Статус Китая в расчетах и резервах»
В статье "China yuan's global FX reserve footprint smallest in 3 years" Michael Cahill, an FX strategist at Goldman Sachs in London высказал гипотезу о том, что одна из причин сокращения доли юаня в международных резервах кроется в геополитике:
"It is also certainly possible that geopolitics have played a role. Academic literature has found that reserve management is in part dictated by geopolitical alignment, and that certainly seems consistent with what we have seen".
Если эта гипотеза верна, то это потенциально именно она является одной из причин существенных трудностей в расчетах между РФ и КНР.
Снижение доли юаня в международных резервах частично объясняется продажами юаня РФ, частично - ослаблением юаня к доллару. Да и срок 2 года для корреляции некоторых событий (даже очень сильной!) не может служить доказательством наличия причинно-следственной связи между событиями.
Возможно, положение дел с расчетами между странами несколько прояснится после ожидаемого визита на высшем уровне в середине мая. Однако если ожидаемого улучшения с расчетами не произойдет - это будет сильным аргументом в пользу высказанной в статье гипотезы. В этом случае, товарооборот между РФ и КНР может заметно сократиться. Уровень международных резервов не слишком велик.
Тем не менее, рассматривать изложенную в статье гипотезу в качестве маловероятного негативного сценария - можно.
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