Five EM Macro and Political Developments

Turkey - CPI inflation accelerates to above-forecast 18.95% y/y in July

• Utility, food price hikes leading factors behind inflation pick-up
• Reopening from lockdown likely prompts materialisation of delayed price hikes like in hospitality and clothing sectors
• Core goods inflation eases with partial recovery of lira, easing demand for consumer durables
• Policy rate hike unlikely in near term, in our view, although inflation approaches to policy rate

Tunisia - President sacks finance, communication ministers

• New finance minister has a long-term experience with tax reform
• New communications minister is credited for contribution to e-procurement and cyber security

India - Goods trade deficit jumps 19.8% m/m to USD 11.2bn in July

• The rise came on account of a surge in imports, although exports rose to a record high during the month
• India is expected to post a mild current account surplus in Q1 FY22

South Korea - CPI inflation accelerates slightly to 2.6% y/y in July

• Core inflation remains unchanged at 1.2% y/y
• Food prices, transport prices continue to rise strongly

Malaysia - Parliament to discuss repeal of emergency ordinances in September – PM

• PM admits it government failed to convince King to revoke emergency ordinances without a debate in parliament