Uzbekistan: Budget 2022 allows for consolidation, consistency in implementation will be key

Headline deficit set at 3% of GDP, down from 5.5% of GDP this year

Macro framework based on broadly realistic assumptions, in line with IFI forecasts

Revenues to rise by 24% on greater tax collection amid economic recovery, but pandemic risks apply

Budget spending to rise by 12.6% as govt retains ambitious development goals, social welfare remains a priority

Public debt payments rise to UZS 14.3tn, external sources to account for bulk of financing needs

Risks to fiscal performance are manageable, but recent inconsistency of budget execution raises doubts

Authorities seem committed to fiscal prudence, medium-term stabilisation conditional on implementation of new fiscal rule